Following on from a discussion regarding how using the case fatality rate rather than infection fatality rate has artificially pushed up mortality figures and the fear and panic factor, this post goes into depth on all-cause mortality for 2020, particularly for the UK, since these statistics are available sooner than say South Africa.

In Episode 1 of Vaccines Revealed, Dr Zach Bush agrees that contrary to the hype, in the US in 2020 the all-cause mortality was not very different from what was expected, adding that “deaths spiked during flu seasons throughout the world following their typical patterns.” While there was a slight surge in deaths from respiratory diseases, this was anticipated, due to there being below average deaths from these causes in 2019, and thus, “the supply of vulnerable people was shifted from one year to the next, in what might be called a catch-up year.”

“The media coverage does not in any way take into account the criteria of evidence-based risk communication that we have demanded. […] The presentation of raw data without reference to other causes of death leads to an overestimation of the risk“.

From a SWPRS 20 March 2020 update, according to the most recent European monitoring report at that time, overall mortality in all countries (including Italy) and in all age groups had remained within or even below the normal range. In their statement cited in an earlier blog post, the EbM criticise the media reporting on COVID-19.

Analysis of UK all-cause mortality rate for 2020

Worth reading in full is Iain Davis’ article on UK Column, “A deceptive construction: why we must question the COVID-19 mortality statistics,” where he explains that in 2018 the average age of death for men was approximately 80 and for women, 83. And in England and Wales, the average age of COVID-19 deaths is just over 82. Thus, in terms of mortality distribution by age, there is negligible change in terms of impact of COVID.

The only figures that can’t be fudged are the all-cause mortality figures. And if you say that the average age of a COVID death is something similar to what we have seen from every other cause of death, then where is the pandemic?

In the UK Column news broadcast on 14 April 2020, Mike Robinson summarises some key points from the article, mentioning that: “Of the overall mortality rate for all causes for England and Wales, which amounted to 607,173, the UK government attribute 148,000 to COVID. Robinson points out that in the Davis article, however, it is noted that the UK Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) had assessed the UK main operational false positive rate for Rt-PCR tests to be 2.3%, of all conducted tests. The UK government stated that over 118 million tests had been administered, of which it was said that 4.3 million were positive. This works out to 2.7 million false positives out of the 4.3 million positive results, which is a false positive rate of 62.7%. 

False positive rate on tests pushes up mortality attributed to COVID-19

“Could it be that many of these deaths were from other conditions than COVID with a false positive test? Considering that the all-cause mortality was not that low ­– only the ninth worse year since the turn of the beginning of the 1900s – when comparing 2020 in terms of standardised for population growth, this scenario appears likely.

Mike Robinson, UK Column

The label COVID death is applied to all those who either test positive on a PCR test 28 days, and in some cases even 60 days, prior to death. With 62.7% of these being false positive, and the fact that they did not necessarily die with any COVID symptoms, it means that many other causes of death could be subsumed under the designation of COVID. Robinson notes that this is borne out by the data showing that deaths from several conditions have dropped below a five-year average, including conditions involving the heart, cerebrovascular disease, malignant respiratory neoplasm, chronic lower respiratory disease, influenza and pneumonia. Considering that “approximately 90% of supposed COVID-19 decedents had at least one other comorbidity,” deaths actually caused by COVID could be a small percentage of the 148,000.

Deaths from other causes subsumed into COVID

Reporting of COVID deaths and hospital incentivisation to assign patients as COVID

“There is a big difference between COVID-19 causing death, and COVID-19 being found in someone who died of other causes. […] [S]ince the emergence of COVID-19 [t]he list of notifiable diseases has been updated. This list — as well as containing smallpox […] and conditions such as anthrax, brucellosis, plague and rabies […] — has now been amended to include COVID-19. But not flu. That means every positive test for COVID-19 must be notified, in a way that it just would not be for flu or most other infections.

Dr John Lee

In March 2020, as the world was going into lockdown, the US CDC guidelines for cause of death were amended to include deaths as being COVID deaths, if COVID was a contributing factor. There are many reports of elderly people with chronic underlying conditions, where their deaths are being attributed to COVID. Deaths from other conditions dropped dramatically, so analysts note that many deaths from other causes have been incorrectly registered as COVID deaths.

Dr John Lee discusses this issue of the mortality rate when using “with COVID-19” rather than “from COVID-19” and how this has inflated the mortality rate in the UK. He writes: “[T]here’s another […] serious problem: the way that deaths are recorded. If someone dies of a respiratory infection in the UK, the specific cause of the infection is not usually recorded […] [I]f the patient has, say, cancer, motor neurone disease or another serious disease, this will be recorded as the cause of death, even if the final illness was a respiratory infection. This means UK certifications normally under-record deaths due to respiratory infections.

Dr John Lee has continued to write critical articles regarding Covid-19 for The Spectator.

In Vaccines Revealed Episode 6, Dr Kaufman speculates that the COVID death rates would be quite different if more autopsies had been done, whereas in reality the rate of autopsies was close to zero, which is the opposite of what has happened in previous alleged public health crises, in which the number of autopsies goes up as public health officials seek to learn as much as possible about the disease.

On the basis of a shaky and flawed model, the world was put into lockdown, leading to smashed economies and devastation to countless people, who have lost their livelihoods, and in some areas of the world, even led to starvation. The morality rates also confirm the world has not been in the grip of a pandemic. 

No wonder collectives of scientific and medical professionals are coming together to speak out about this unspeakable devastation, and calling for a global assessment of the entire basis for the unprecedented step of imprisoning people in their homes, as discussed in the next section.